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| #1193872 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 14.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 14 2024 The satellite structure of Ernesto has somewhat improved tonight. A series of earlier SSMI/S 91 GHz passive microwave images showed the formation of a mid-level eye, and there have been recent hints of an eye trying to emerge in proxy-visible satellite images. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 982 mb, and the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 kt in the northeast quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt. The wind field remains quite broad and asymmetric, with the strongest aircraft winds well to the northeast of the center. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission into Ernesto is scheduled for tomorrow morning. Ernesto is now moving north-northwestward at 330/14 kt. The hurricane will continue on a north-northwestward to northward motion during the next day or so while moving through a break in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. The global models agree the upper trough that weakened the ridge will not capture Ernesto. As a result, Ernesto will move slower to the north-northeast and north while the hurricane approaches and moves near Bermuda Friday night and Saturday. Later this weekend, a second trough will move across the eastern U.S., and Ernesto should accelerate northeastward early next week within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, as the track guidance remains in good overall agreement. It is still too soon to know exactly how close Ernesto`s center will move to Bermuda this weekend, but warnings will likely be required for the island on Thursday. While there is still evidence of some drier air nearby Ernesto, the very warm ocean waters and weak to moderate shear should promote some strengthening during the next couple of days. This is supported by the bulk of the intensity guidance, and the regional hurricane models still favor Ernesto reaching major hurricane intensity on Friday. The latest NHC prediction remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus. Some gradual weakening is forecast thereafter as Ernesto moves into a drier, more sheared environment. There are some indications that positive interaction with the second upper trough could cause Ernesto`s intensity to level off or even slightly increase during the 60-96 h time period while still over warm waters. By 120 h, the model fields suggest Ernesto will be on the verge of losing tropical characteristics while accelerating over cooler waters. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda on Saturday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. Rainfall associated with Ernesto may begin to affect Bermuda late Thursday and result in flash flooding across Bermuda later this week and this weekend. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area late this week and into the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.0N 68.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.7N 69.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 28.6N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 30.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 32.2N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 34.0N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 38.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
