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#1193974 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 15.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 230SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 68.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 150SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE