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| #1193976 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 15.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 The inner core of Ernesto continues to be plagued by dry air intrusion. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Ernesto has yet to close off an eyewall. While the minimum central sea level pressure has fallen to an estimated 972 mb based on dropsonde data, the maximum flight-level winds are still at 86 kt, similar to the earlier mission. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory cycle. Ernesto has turned northward, with an estimated motion of 360/11 kt. The storm is currently being steered by the flow between the subtropical ridge centered over the north Atlantic Ocean and a mid-latitude trough just off the eastern seaboard of North America. This hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northeastward and slow down over the next day or so as the trough lifts out to the northeast. A subsequent trough is forecast to approach the New England coast on Sunday and accelerate Ernesto off to the northeast. The official track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous prediction and lies between the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday and near or east of Atlantic Canada on Monday. Warm waters and relatively low vertical wind shear should allow Ernesto to gradually intensify over the next 12 hours or so. Still, the mid-level atmospheric moisture is expected to be marginal and the system could continue to experience dry air intrusions. Global models suggest that while the vertical wind shear could begin to increase within a day, Ernesto may be positioned in a region relative to the departing trough where it could capitalize on enhanced outflow and continue to strength. By the weekend, atmospheric conditions should become less favorable and gradually weaken the hurricane. Still, Ernesto is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda. Little changes have been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the top of the model guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect Bermuda this evening and may result in flash flooding Friday through this weekend. 3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 26.1N 68.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.6N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 66.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 65.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 32.9N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 36.9N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 50.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde |
