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| #1193987 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 15.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 68.4W ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a slower northeastward or north-northeastward motion late Friday and Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected later in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ernesto could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches on Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and are beginning to reach Bermuda. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States overnight and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
