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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194083 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 16.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 66.4W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 55SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 230SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 45SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.4N 63.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 75SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N 59.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 140SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 160SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 270SE 270SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN