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| #1194084 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 16.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...LARGE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BRING BERMUDA STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 66.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 66.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown by Saturday. A faster northeastward motion is expected late in the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda on Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located to the northeast of Ernesto recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (73 km/h), with a gust up to 57 mph (93 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions likely beginning later this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are expected to spread up the east coast of the United States later today and continue into the weekend, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
