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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194127 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 16.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 16 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 65SE 50SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 65.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 65.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 230SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 70SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 160SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 53.5N 22.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN