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| #1194130 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 16.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER BERMUDA SHORTLY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 65.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 65.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown tomorrow. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible by early next week. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto`s center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with tropical storm conditions already beginning on the island. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells are also beginning to affect the east coast of the United States and will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin |
