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| #1194148 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 16.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 800 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING BEGINNING OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 65.2W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown beginning early Saturday. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). A Saildrone (SD-1068) recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 94 mph (152 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force early Saturday. Due to Ernesto`s large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island into Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Saturday. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
