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| #1194185 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 17.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO LASHING BERMUDA WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 65.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual slowdown is expected during the next day or so. An accelerating northeastward motion is then expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over Bermuda within a few hours and near or east of Newfoundland Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so, though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend. Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The L. F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda through the next several hours. Due to Ernesto`s large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through most of today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by tonight. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
