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#1194205 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 17.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 285SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.6N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.0N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 130SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE