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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194241 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 17.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 280SE 260SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 63.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N 63.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.9N 54.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.2N 27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG