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| #1194244 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 17.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...HAZARDOUS WEATHER STILL OCCURING ON BERMUDA AS ERNESTO MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.4W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. An acceleration toward the north-northeast should begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring late Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly move away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). An elevated weather station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane-force gusts are possible on Bermuda for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue through this evening or tonight. STORM SURGE: Significant coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm in Bermuda. This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and will reach portions of Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
