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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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#1194282 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 17.Aug.2024)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 305SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 64.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG