|
Show Selection: |
| #1194321 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 17.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 ...ERNESTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 63.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 63.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will move away from Bermuda tonight and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Some intensification is possible Sunday and Sunday night, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall through Saturday night across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
