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| #1194337 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 18.Aug.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
