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We are closely tracking Tropical Storm #Milton forecast to be a very dangerous hurricane as it strikes Florida mid next week #Flwx Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Helene) , Major: 9 (Helene) Florida - Any: 9 (Helene) Major: 9 (Helene)
31.3N 49.3W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 951mb
Moving:
N at 20 mph
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12.4N 36.9W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 985mb
Moving:
Nw at 9 mph
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23.0N 95.1W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 4 mph
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#1194395 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 18.Aug.2024)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024

After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over
the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical
cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap
around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye
feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective
and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the
modest improvement in Ernesto`s structure on satellite, and the
initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at
60 kt this advisory.

Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a
hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall
of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs
sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should
initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete
in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is
absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in
good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance.

The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward,
estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track
thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East
Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the
southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed
along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days.
On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to
Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the
bulk of the cyclone`s wind field staying offshore of the Canadian
Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to
turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical
cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch
further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast
ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h.


Key Messages:

1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the
U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to
affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers
should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening
surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised
by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.

2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding,
particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to
Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please
see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin