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| #1194605 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 19.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Ernesto continues to slowly gain strength. Satellite images indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a little better defined, but the storm still has a convective asymmetry with the strongest thunderstorms on the north side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.5/77 kt and the objective satellite guidance is a little higher. Based on the data and the improved structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 80 kt. A very recent ASCAT pass indicated that Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. The strongest winds and largest radius of hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the southeastern quadrant. The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the north-northeast, or 30 degrees at 19 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Ernesto is now crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and will soon be moving over sharply cooler SSTs. In addition, the hurricane will be moving into an environment of stronger shear and drier air. All of these conditions should lead to weakening very soon and extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the GFS guidance during the extratropical phase. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 41.8N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul |
