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| #1194646 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 19.Aug.2024) TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Ernesto is maintaining its intensity at high latitudes. The hurricane continues to have an eye feature, especially in the mid-levels, and thunderstorms remain most organized north of the center. Recent microwave images indicate that the circulation has become titled from southwest to northeast with height, an indication of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in general agreement with the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Ernesto has likely peaked in strength. Since the hurricane has now crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream and moving into an environment of increasing shear and drier air, steady or rapid weakening is expected to begin soon. The environmental factors should also cause extratropical transition, which will likely be complete Tuesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the northeast, or 35 degrees at 23 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 43.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
