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New Area in the Western Caribbean with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days. Worth watching next week for those in the Eastern Gulf and Florida.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 385 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 44 (Debby) Major: 385 (Idalia)
 
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#1197333 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 08.Sep.2024)
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 94.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI