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| #1197334 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 08.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 The system is gradually becoming better organized with deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, earlier visible satellite imagery and aircraft data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the disturbance does not have a well-defined center and still resembles an elongated trough. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the aircraft data. The strongest winds are occurring on the system`s west side, and are likely enhanced by the barrier jet associated with the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. The initial motion is estimated to be 320/4 kt. A mid-level ridge situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic should steer the disturbance slowly northward or north-northwestward through Tuesday morning, likely keeping the core of the system off the coast of Mexico and southern Texas through that time. By late Tuesday, a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an approaching shortwave trough. That motion should take the cyclone to the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast on Wednesday. A north-northeastward motion is forecast after landfall when the system merges with the trough. The NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal since the system does not have a well-defined center. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours as it will likely take some time for the system to consolidate and develop a well organized circulation. Once the system is able to close off and contract, steady strengthening is forecast as the cyclone will be over warm waters and within a region of high moisture and upper-level diffluence. However, some of the models show an increase in shear and slightly drier air affecting the system around the time it reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. The highest winds are expected to remain on the west side of the system during the next day or so, but these winds should shift to the eastern side of the circulation before the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas. 2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
