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New Area in the Western Caribbean with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days. Worth watching next week for those in the Eastern Gulf and Florida.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 385 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 44 (Debby) Major: 385 (Idalia)
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#1197407 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 09.Sep.2024)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 100SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN