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New Area in the Western Caribbean with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days. Worth watching next week for those in the Eastern Gulf and Florida.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 385 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 44 (Debby) Major: 385 (Idalia)
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#1197454 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 09.Sep.2024)
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 96.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN