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| #1197726 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 11.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 As expected, Francine has strengthened and become better organized overnight. Radar data and earlier reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the eyewall is better defined, with deep convection wrapping around the center of the hurricane. The eyewall has contracted a bit from earlier, although it was open to the south on the last fix and in more recent GMI passive microwave images. The microwave data also showed some northeastward vortex tilt with height, a sign that Francine is experiencing some effects of southwesterly shear. Based on the earlier peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 89 kt, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, with a minimum pressure of 977 mb based on aircraft data. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Francine again this morning. The hurricane is moving northeastward at 035/9 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast today and tonight as the hurricane is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast today, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and very close to the consensus aids. The structure of Francine could allow for some additional short-term strengthening this morning over the very warm Gulf waters, and this is reflected in the updated NHC forecast. Southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the hurricane later today, and interaction with an upper trough should cause drier air to wrap around the southern portion of Francine as it nears the coast. Thus, the hurricane is not expected to continue strengthening through landfall, but will continue to pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to rapidly weaken, quickly lose tropical characteristics, and transition to an extratropical cyclone over northern Mississippi. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area later this morning, and preparations to protect life and property should be complete. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and northern Florida through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
