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New Area in the Western Caribbean with a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days. Worth watching next week for those in the Eastern Gulf and Florida.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 385 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 44 (Debby) Major: 385 (Idalia)
 
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#1197773 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 11.Sep.2024)
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch for the Alabama coast, including Mobile bay,
has been changed to a Coastal Flood Warning. Please refer to
products from local National Weather Service Offices for additional
information.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning this afternoon for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is
expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move
northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and
the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An oil platform north of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) and a peak gust of 105 mph
(169 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m).

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform located
east of the center recently reported a pressure of 978.7 mb (28.90
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon and tonight, with tropical storm
conditions arriving in the warning area during the next several
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven