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| #1197774 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 11.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of southwesterly shear. The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
