|
Show Selection: |
| #1197806 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 11.Sep.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 92.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the southwestern coast of Louisiana west of Cameron. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area later this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An oil platform east of the center recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a peak gust of 102 mph (164 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). The oil platform with the winds reported above also reported a pressure of 983.3 mb (29.04 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
