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| #1197836 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 11.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite images show there has been little change with the depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and subjective Dvorak classifications. The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward). The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend (continuity prevents a larger change). Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time. Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake |
