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| #1197839 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 11.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next 12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is similar to, but faster than, the previous track. Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning, with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
