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| #1197866 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 11.Sep.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 90.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.9 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue, taking the system across southeastern Louisiana tonight and across Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the hurricane warning area, with tropical storm conditions spreading inland. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
