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| #1198016 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 12.Sep.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern Arkansas by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php $$ Forecaster Beven |
