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| #1198019 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 12.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Frances has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat. The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas. This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
