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| #1198124 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 12.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024 The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation, thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center. Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the previous prediction and the consensus aids. Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of the various aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
