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| #1198200 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 13.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone, a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates around that value. The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (295/10 kt). While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to be only slowing the storm down. The track guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly throughout much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends. Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and some weakening is anticipated this weekend. While the shear isn`t expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Blake |
