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| #1198238 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 13.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024 Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained steady around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment. Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9 kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
