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| #1198433 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 14.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon`s surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB. Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5 in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently, subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above. Gordon`s initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or 245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone will survive during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
