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| #1198475 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 15.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT data should help us re-assess Gordon`s maximum winds later this morning. Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than 5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast, trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5. Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple of days, and it`s entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
