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| #1198556 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 15.Sep.2024) TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently seen on radar from Wilmington, NC. However, the system may not have yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep convection over and around the center, it is becoming more likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time with an initial intensity of 40 kt. There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 320/6 kt. Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern U.S. coast in 24 hours or so. The NHC forecast track is close to the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions. the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear near the axis of an upper-level trough. Therefore some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/0600Z 32.4N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/1800Z 33.1N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 34.1N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 35.4N 80.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 36.7N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 37.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
