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| #1198592 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 15.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory. The tropical depression continues to move south of due west, estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop, related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior advisory. Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin |
