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| #1198615 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 16.Sep.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 78.1W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 78.1 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm today, and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41004, located about 45 miles (75 km) southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur today across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
