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Modeled CAG/TC next week with now 40% NHC odds within 7 days. Model-implied 80% odds within 10 days. Entire NW Carib & Gulf should monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Francine) , Major: 386 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 45 (Debby) Major: 386 (Idalia)
 
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#1198632 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 16.Sep.2024)
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG