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| #1198637 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 16.Sep.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
