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| #1198678 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 16.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon. This activity is limited and not particularly well organized however, with the coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C. Based on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a mid-level ridge. During the next couple of days, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the north and northeast of Gordon. This flow evolution, along with the interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward the north in 36 hours or so. Some of the global models are showing a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction, and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks. Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the environment is still a bit dry. The dynamical guidance indicates a further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters. Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours, in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
