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| #1198736 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 16.Sep.2024) TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. Since the system is no longer producing sustained tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the system. Key Messages: 1. Additional considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding is possible across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding for the southern Mid-Atlantic region and southern Appalachians through Wednesday. 2. Gusty winds will continue along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina into this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 33.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 34.4N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1800Z 34.9N 80.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
