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| #1198739 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 16.Sep.2024) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...REFER TO LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 78.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 78.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, and the low will move inland across the Carolinas tonight and Tuesday. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next day or so, and the low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Gusty winds are expected to diminish this evening along the coast of North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along portions of the southeastern North Carolina coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. Refer to your local National Weather Service office for additional information. RAINFALL: The system will bring an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals of 10 inches, across portions of southeast North Carolina into tonight. Across northern South Carolina and the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 8 inches, particularly in the North Carolina Blue Ridge, are possible through Tuesday. Over southeast Virginia and the Virginia Blue Ridge, expect 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with this system, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For more information, see products from your local National Weather Service forecast office. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
