Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Landfall of Particularly Dangerous Hurricane Milton near Siesta Key, FL. Catastophic damage (surge, inland flooding, tor and wind) continues. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Helene) , Major: 13 (Helene) Florida - Any: 13 (Helene) Major: 13 (Helene)
22.6N 49.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
28.1N 81.3W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ene at 16 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 93LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1199694 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 23.Sep.2024)
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.

While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Reinhart