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Landfall of Particularly Dangerous Hurricane Milton near Siesta Key, FL. Catastophic damage (surge, inland flooding, tor and wind) continues. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Helene) , Major: 13 (Helene) Florida - Any: 13 (Helene) Major: 13 (Helene)
22.6N 49.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
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28.1N 81.3W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ene at 16 mph
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#1199801 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 24.Sep.2024)
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized.
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level
circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.

The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt.
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into
the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower,
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall
change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future
track refinements.

Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and
tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.

Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches
and warnings are likely later today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.

2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by
local officials.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake