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| #1200581 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 27.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Tropical Storm Joyce has formed over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm in the basin this season. First-light visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds moving westward, indicating the surface circulation has closed. Deep, organized convection has been persistent for the past day or so with decent outflow noted in the northern semicircle of the circulation. This initial intensity is set to 35 kt, representing the subjective satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Joyce has a short window for potential intensification. For the next day or so, deep-layer vertical wind shear should be moderate-to-low with warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Mid-level humidities around Joyce are sufficient, but expected to dry in the coming days. Global models predict the vertical wind shear should increase and the storm will likely experience dry air intrusions. The official forecast shows Joyce strengthening to a peak of 50 kt on Saturday, followed by gradual weakening through next week. Deep convection should be stripped away by Tuesday and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low at that point before opening into a trough. However, the GFS suggests this could happen even sooner. The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A weak mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer Joyce generally northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the north-northwest and north with a slowing forward speed. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this evolution and the NHC track forecast follows the various simple and corrected consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
