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#1200581 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 27.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Storm Joyce has formed over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm in the basin this season.
First-light visible satellite imagery showed low-level clouds
moving westward, indicating the surface circulation has closed.
Deep, organized convection has been persistent for the past day or
so with decent outflow noted in the northern semicircle of the
circulation. This initial intensity is set to 35 kt, representing
the subjective satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Joyce has a short window for potential intensification. For the
next day or so, deep-layer vertical wind shear should be
moderate-to-low with warm sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track. Mid-level humidities around Joyce are sufficient,
but expected to dry in the coming days. Global models predict the
vertical wind shear should increase and the storm will likely
experience dry air intrusions. The official forecast shows Joyce
strengthening to a peak of 50 kt on Saturday, followed by gradual
weakening through next week. Deep convection should be stripped
away by Tuesday and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low
at that point before opening into a trough. However, the GFS
suggests this could happen even sooner.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A weak mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is expected to steer Joyce
generally northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn to the north-northwest and north with a slowing forward
speed. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this
evolution and the NHC track forecast follows the various simple and
corrected consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.8N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.9N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci