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| #1200745 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 28.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level center located on the southern edge of the convection due to southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near 45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on this the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from the previous forecast. Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system approaching from the east. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
