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#1200745 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 28.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Joyce has changed
little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level
center located on the southern edge of the convection due to
southerly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are clustered near
45 kt and have changed little during the past 6 h, and based on
this the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The initial motion is just a little to the right of the previous
motion, 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow
subtropical ridge, which is going to weaken and break as a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the central Atlantic during the
next few days. This evolution should cause Joyce to move slowly to
the west-northwest and northwest for a couple of days, followed by
an even slower motion toward the north. The track guidance is in
generally good agreement through 48 h, but after that time there is
some divergence due to a couple of the regional hurricane models
forecasting a stronger Joyce to recurve into the aforementioned
trough. As with the previous advisory, the track forecast calls for
a weaker Joyce to move slowly and not be fully picked up by the
trough, and the new forecast track has no significant changes from
the previous forecast.
Joyce is experiencing moderate southerly shear, and the global
models forecast this to continue for the next several days. In
addition, the storm will be moving into a gradually drier and
subsident environment. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar
to the previous forecast in calling for little change in strength
during the next 12 hours, followed by gradual weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Joyce
will lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not
sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or
5, with the remnants subsequently being absorbed by another system
approaching from the east.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 19.5N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 20.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.1N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 21.7N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 22.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 22.6N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven |
