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| #1200899 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported by a blend of subjective and objective estimates. Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same, or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3 days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore, weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
