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Landfall of Particularly Dangerous Hurricane Milton near Siesta Key, FL. Catastophic damage (surge, inland flooding, tor and wind) continues. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Helene) , Major: 13 (Helene) Florida - Any: 13 (Helene) Major: 13 (Helene)
22.6N 49.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
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28.1N 81.3W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ene at 16 mph
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#1200899 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 29.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2024

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with an
upper-level trough over the central subtropical Atlantic, continues
to impact the tropical storm. Although deep convection has been
intermittently redeveloping near the center, the persistent shear
is displacing this shower and thunderstorm activity to the north
and northeast of the mostly exposed circulation center. The
advisory intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with
the most recent scatterometer data. This is also supported
by a blend of subjective and objective estimates.

Center fixes indicate that the motion remains about the same,
or at around 305/8 kt. An amplifying mid-level trough over the
east-central Atlantic should cause Joyce to turn northward during
the next day or so. If Joyce maintains some vertical depth in 2-3
days, it could accelerate north-northeastward ahead of the trough
around that time. The official track forecast is the same as the
previous NHC prediction and close to the model consensus.

Over the next couple of days, Joyce is expected to remain in an
environment of strong southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear
and an increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. Therefore,
weakening is anticipated and the system will probably degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area in 2-3 days. This is consistent
with the global model predictions. The official intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.3N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.7N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 23.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 25.6N 48.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z 26.8N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch